Assessment of Risk Factors Influencing Landscape Level Fire in MPB Forests

There is a gap in knowledge around wildfire ignition, and in particular, fire occurrence in relation to the MPB outbreak. The proposed research will assess risk factors that influence landscape level wildfire in stands that have experienced MPB-caused pine mortality in western Canada. The results will help to identify hot spots for wildfire, given weather and local environmental conditions.

Objectives

1. To determine if the number of wildfire ignitions is significantly different pre- and post-MPB outbreak periods across the range of susceptible hosts in Alberta and British Columbia.
   Null hypothesis: There is no significant difference in the number of wildfire ignitions or area burned in the periods before and after outbreaks across the MPB-susceptible area.
2. To determine the degree to which weather, stand characteristics, and year since MPB attack influence the probability of a large wildfire occurring in affected areas.
   Null hypothesis: Weather, stand characteristics, MPB severity, and year since attack equally contribute to the likelihood of a large wildfire occurring across the MPB-susceptible area.