Dynamic Species Distribution Modelling to Predict Mountain Pine Beetle Boreal Invasion

We are currently unable to predict the distribution of future epidemic MPB spread under climate change in Alberta and in jurisdictions east of the province, particularly in those provinces with scant information on vegetation inventory. This project proposes developing models that do not rely on vegetation inventory data to determine habitat suitability and spread of MPB over space and time. These models will be made publically available so that practitioners can use these products to predict future range expansion and develop risk assessments.

Objectives

1. To develop an idealized SDM framework to generate time-series MPB distribution maps by integrating annual RS and biotic predictors with an existing habitat suitability model
2. To develop a dynamic SDM (DSDM) to simulate dispersal of MPB from areas of high risk
3. Validate the MPB SDM and DSDM using detailed presence/absence data derived from the invasion of Alberta pine forests that began in 2006, and data from ongoing monitoring of the invasion front in Saskatchewan.
4. To apply the MPB SDM and DSDM to predict current areas of high probability of MPB occurrence in the western boreal forest and future risk of continued eastward expansion (i.e., into Saskatchewan and Manitoba) under climate change.
5. Compare MPB niches in British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan to understand MPB niche similarity, stability and expansion.