Toward Preemptive Management of Future Outbreaks: Predicting the distribution of post epidemic mountain pine beetle populations in the western boreal forest

Evidence suggests that MPB populations cannot persist in jack pine stands unless there is a constant source of beetles from an epidemic in adjacent lodgepole or hybrid lodgepole-jack pine stands. This inability to persist may be due, in part, to differences in jack pine stand structure. This work will use stand density indices on to predict the spatial distribution of habitat capable of supporting future endemic MPB populations in Alberta and provinces eastward. This information will support targeted forest management decisions, such as stand thinning and inform where monitoring efforts should be focused to alert to potential future outbreaks.

Objectives

1. To generate a model that incorporates SDI as a means of identifying stands that exhibit stand structural traits associated with endemic suitability within Alberta
2. To test our model predictions in lodgepole and jack pine via ground-truthing of actual stand structure, endemic suitability, and presence/absence of endemic populations
3. To predict where suitable endemic habitat exists outside Alberta using continental-scale remote sensing data